UK transnational education grows across all regions during the pandemic – where do we go from here?

UK TNE is the delivery of UK degrees overseas. This includes online and distance learning, dual or joint degrees, validation, or franchising partnerships as well as overseas campuses. Because of its nature, TNE can be less vulnerable to disruption of the type we have seen during the pandemic – such as social distancing measures, travel restrictions or closed borders. So, at a time when the world was turned upside down, it was one of the few elements within international education that could continue with little or no interruption.  

Indeed, UK TNE did well. In 2020-21, 161 UK providers - the highest number ever - delivered some form of TNE to 507,240 students in over 225 countries and territories. This is a 12.8% increase in student numbers compared to the previous academic year and the largest year-on-year growth in the last five years. 

So far, so good. But let’s have a closer look at what the data tells us about the impact of the pandemic on UK TNE. 

UK TNE grew across all regions: A look at Asia, the EU and South America 

In 2020-21, most of the UK’s TNE delivery was concentrated in Asia, which accounted for approximately half of all UK TNE student numbers. It showed the largest growth in terms of magnitude (up by 25,720 students, a 17.3% increase compared to the previous academic year). Growth in UK TNE numbers was particularly visible in China, which took over the first-place position from Malaysia. During 2020-21 China had one of the strictest Covid-19 induced lockdowns in the world and hundreds of flights cancelled to fight the pandemic. The country hosted around 12,000 students more than in 2019-20 – a 23.5% increase.  

The EU was the second-largest host region for UK TNE, but it showed the smallest growth (+8.7%) across all regions in 2020-21. Greece was still by far the largest host country in the EU, but UK TNE student numbers in Germany showed the largest increase (+24.7%) overall. Notably, the number of UK TNE students at overseas campuses in the country almost doubled from 2019-20 to 2020-21.  

South America demonstrated the strongest year-on-year growth rate (+21.7%) in 2020-21, potentially related the severe travel restrictions its countries were subjected to. However, UK TNE in South America remains in its infancy with generally low numbers (3,060 students in 2020-21). 

Online and distributed learning was not the absolute winner  

Despite being the mode of TNE that was least affected by the public health measures, online, flexible and distributed learning showed the smallest growth compared with other types of provision from 2019-20 to 2020-21, at only 8.4%.  

However, the actual number of students studying online across borders may have been much higher because students who were supposed to be UK-based but ended up studying online from elsewhere because of the pandemic, may not have been reported to the HESA Aggregate Offshore record (AOR). This type of provision was the largest across a few regions, including in the EU, at 40.1%, in Australasia at 99.0%, North America at 81.1%, and South America at 80.8% - roughly in line with proportions in the previous academic year. It will be interesting to see how the easing of restrictions in some parts of the world will impact this type of TNE provision. 

The top type of provision in 2020-21 was collaborative provision with close to 200,000 students, a 12.9% increase from last year. Collaborative provision was particularly big in Africa (39.8%) and Asia (53.2%). Interestingly, restrictions did not hinder growth in overseas campuses (up 15.0%) or provisions with overseas partner organisations (up 17.6%) either. This may be because mobility restrictions precisely demonstrated the need for high-quality TNE in regions like Africa, Asia and the Middle East, whose students would have otherwise travelled overseas to pursue their studies.  

Now what? 

Seeing the growth in UK TNE across all regions is undeniably positive. However, whether this growth is sustainable and what the longer-term impact of the pandemic will be for UK TNE, and above all UK TNE students, remains to be seen. Also, to analyse and understand this impact, especially on students, we need to answer a range of questions that the currently available data cannot provide answers to: Who are the students that are studying on UK TNE provision across the world? Where are they coming from? How did the pandemic affect their outcomes? Rather than wait for the next data releases, let’s actively shape new ways of measuring and understanding UK TNE for the benefit of our students and start a debate on what this should look like. UUKi’s group on monitoring and evaluation tools in TNE is trying to do exactly that. This group is made up of university representatives across UK nations and was formed to provide the higher education sector with insights on how metrics and data analytics can be used to better understand and manage TNE. If you are interested in finding out more about this work, please get in touch with Joana Westphal, Policy Advisor at UUKi.  

More facts and figures on the UK’s international higher education activities will be published this summer in our annual publication, International Facts and Figures.