International student recruitment: geographical diversification of markets

Geographical diversification of international student recruitment has become an institutional preoccupation over the past decade, attracting the attention of international education professionals and policymakers. The importance of this issue is heightened in the UK by the 40% reduction in EU undergraduate applicants, as estimated by UCAS, who enrolled in 2021-22.*  

This is likely to increase the reliance on a small number of countries at the undergraduate level, where the concentration of EU students is the highest. 

This analytical piece examines the state of geographical diversification of international student recruitment at the first degree, postgraduate taught and postgraduate research levels.

This analysis uses the HESA student record 2020-21, unless specified otherwise. 

* UCAS (2021), https://www.ucas.com/data-and-analysis/undergraduate-statistics-and-reports/ucas-undergraduate-sector-level-end-cycle-data-resources-2021. 

There is a relatively balanced diversity in the market at first degree level.  

While there was an increase in the number of UK higher education institutions (HEIs) recruiting half of their students from one country, there was a notable reduction in the universities’ reliance on China at the bachelor’s level. In 2017-18, 56% of the HEIs had China as their top market; this dropped to 49% in 2020-21. This is largely attributable to the reduction in Chinese undergraduate entrants. Over the same period, India became the top market for 11% of the HEIs, up from 0%.

The discussion about market diversification should also consider the international student recruitment pipelines. My preliminary estimates show that the declines in full-time first-degree students from China were mainly concentrated in those students who progressed into Year 2 or higher of a bachelors’ course through transnational education (TNE) or credit recognition arrangements. China is the largest source country for students progressing from offshore courses, accounting for more than half of all TNE entrants in 2020-21. 

Except at overseas branch campuses, many of the articulating students part-way through the bachelors’ course are likely to be sensitive to cost. Previously, I have argued that offshore pathways leading to shorter programmes in the UK might widen access to students who otherwise would have been unable to afford them.*   

The causes for the declines in students from China are complex and nuanced – some are likely to be attributed to the pandemic and the shift to online learning, which might have eroded the premium for students of being physically based in the UK. Disrupted travel also meant that students with the best intentions of travelling were unable to do so and had to continue their course from their home country.  

In the long run, we are still to see whether this disruption in the TNE recruitment pipeline is a blip or part of an emerging trend, perhaps related to improving higher education provision in the home country. 

*See https://ejournals.bc.edu/index.php/ihe/article/download/8733/7858/. 

Unlike for undergraduate courses, most of the HEIs (82 per cent) are heavily reliant on one or two markets for the recruitment of their postgraduate taught (PGT) students.  

The number of HEIs recruiting more than half of their PGT students from one country has increased over the past three years from 42% to 50%, and the proportion of those recruiting from two countries has doubled from 16% in 2017-18 to 32% in 2020-21. 

Another significant shift is the replacement of reliance on China with that of India. China dropped from being the top market for 55% of the HEIs in 2017-18 to 35% in 2020-21. Similarly, the proportions of HEIs with most of their PGT students from India increased from 15% in 2017-18 to 46% in 2020-21. 

An additional and often overlooked aspect of reliance on one country is the impact on the student experience. One of the key drivers for international student mobility, particularly at the postgraduate level, is the expectation of an internationalised learning experience with a classroom consisting of students from many different countries.

There is a strong positive relationship between the total number of postgraduate research (PGR) students at an HEI and the number of countries in which they are domiciled.  

At a glance, the distribution of HEIs along the best fit line appears to be more equal than that of postgraduate taught and undergraduate students. The chart shows the distribution of HEIs according to the overall number of postgraduate research students and the number of students’ domicile countries.

However, studying the market diversification at the PGR level over time shows a worrying growth in reliance on a small number of countries.  

Between 2017-18 and 2020-21, the number of HEIs recruiting more than half of their students from one country has increased from 24% to 33%. Similarly, those recruiting from two countries also grew (from 20% to 34%), whereas the proportion of HEIs recruiting half of their students from more than two countries dropped significantly. 

China is the top recruitment country for PGR entrants for over half of the HEIs. The proportion of HEIs reliant on China as a top market increased from 34% in 2017-18 to 51% in 2020-21. The main suggestion of this finding is that declines in government scholarships and tuition fee waivers have exacerbated the reliance. In 2020-21, over two-thirds (67% ) of the growth in self-funded PhDs over the past three years was attributed to China (mainly business studies). 

In addition to markets, the discussion of diversification should also consider the HEIs’ international student recruitment portfolio – exposure to any recruitment pipeline can be as risky as reliance on one market. The pandemic might have disproportionately impacted demand from students with limited financial means, like those articulating from offshore courses. 

The source of tuition fee funding is particularly relevant for PhD students, as discussed in the UUKi report ‘Global demand for UK postgraduate research degrees’, which shows a growing reliance on self-funded students. This may not attract the calibre of PhD researchers the UK attracted in the past, many of whom were funded students. 

In the short term, the area that may be most impacted is international student entry to first degree programmes. China and the EU collectively accounted for 55% of the BSc entrants in 2020-21, and continued declines will have a huge impact on the sustainability of undergraduate demand for UK higher education. 

Another shift is from countries with a low cost of acquisition and high conversion rates (such as China, and the EU at the undergraduate level) to countries with a high cost of acquisition and low conversions. At present, these are mainly postgraduate taught markets. An additional cost is the most likely increase in the proportion of postgraduate students, the average length of whose degrees is one academic year.

This is significantly shorter than a typical first-degree programme, which is typically three years long. Such a shift signals an increase in the cost and volatility of student recruitment. 

Market diversification is not risk-free. Possible changes to post-study work should be part of universities' scenario planning. 

Efficient diversification of international students should be considered, alongside considerations about students’ wellbeing, their experience and graduate outcomes, sustainable growth in student numbers, and the health of the international student recruitment portfolio (in terms of which pipelines perform well, and which don’t). 

Janet Ilieva is Founder and Director of Education Insight. Janet will speak at UUKi and IDP Connect's International Student Recruitment Conference on 6 October 2022.