Why removing international students from net migration statistics isn’t as straightforward as it might sound

International students aren’t like other types of migrants  

The argument goes something like this: international students make a significant economic, social, and cultural contribution to UK. Typically, students come in for a few years and then leave not long after completing their studies. That is why the government is right to look to increase the number of international students coming to the UK, and why they are wrong to include this group in the net migration stats.

I’ll admit it's a seductive argument, and one which has the support of several high-profile MPs. Former Education Secretary, Kit Malthouse, has signalled his support for the idea, as has Alicia Kearns and Chris Skidmore. Even the current Education Secretary, Gillian Keegan, is reportedly interested in the idea.

Not only that, but recent polling commissioned by UUK also shows that only a minority of the public view international students as ‘migrants’.

Faced with a government which is agnostic (at best) towards universities, but determined to bring down current levels of migration, it’s easy to see why this has become a key ask for many across the sector.  

What do we mean by ‘removing’ international students?

But what does ‘removing’ international students from the net migration statistics actually mean in practice?  

The UK’s official migration estimates are produced by ONS who use the UN recommended definition of a long-term international migrant (LTIM). This same definition is used by many other countries around the world and defines a migrant as someone who moves their country of residence for a year or more.  

By most measures, international students fit that definition, hence why they are included within the stats.  

While it would be technically possible to remove these people from the overall net migration stat, it would not be without significant practical and political challenges – some of which the ONS has explored in a recent blog.  

For example:  

• How would such models align (or differ) from the headline net migration stat, and how easily understood would any changes be?  

• Should we rely on historic assumptions when removing international students, or remove on the basis of those who have recently come to the UK on a study visa?  

• What if they then switch into a non-study visa afterwards and extend their time in the UK?  

• And what about other types of ‘temporary’ migrants – such as seasonal workers, those coming on a Senior or Specialist Worker visa, or those coming to visit. If we are removing international students, why stop there?  

Moreover, with study being one of main reasons people come to the UK, and therefore international students representing one of the key drivers of migration, removing this group from the stats would look suspect at best.  

Put bluntly, in an era of high net migration and low trust in politics, an approach which simply looks to cut the headline net migration stat by discounting those who come here to study would risk looking like a government that was cooking the books.  

So where do we go from here? 

Clearly, there's more to this than often meets the eye. 

What can often appear like a simple and compelling ask – ‘take international students out of the net migration stats’ – starts feeling a lot more complex when you consider some of the practical and political implications of doing so.  

None of this, however, should be read as a defence of the status quo. We desperately need to develop a better, more sophisticated, debate on immigration policy in the UK.  

Rather than simply ‘removing’ an important group from the net statistics, we should be encouraging the ONS to produce additional models of migration which better capture the journeys international students make. We should consider where there are gaps in the current data, and where we think the ONS could or should explore further.  

Such data would help supplement and contextualise any headline net migration figure and, in time, open up the space for more nuance in policymaking and wider discussions.  

To my mind, that can only be a good thing. 

Harry will be joining a long list of brilliant speakers and experts at the front of their field at International Student Recruitment Conference 2023. Make sure you secure your spot to join him here.