What's next for international student recruitment?

Setting the scene

The UK experienced a significant period of growth in international student numbers between 2019 and 2022. This was driven by a combination of government strategy, a shift in political messaging, and the openness of the UK immediately following the pandemic. As the most recent HESA data shows, the number of international students in UK higher education reached an all-time high of 758,855 in the academic year 2022/23, however has since declined as both political and market factors have since changed and the attractiveness of the UK as a study destination has fallen. 

With concerns over immigration rising up the political agenda, the previous government introduced several measures aimed at reducing net migration. This included restrictions on dependant visas and increased visa and immigration costs, as well as a review of the Graduate route visa, which created significant uncertainty around the UK’s post-study work offer. So, what has the impact been of these changes, and where are we with current international student recruitment?

Where we are now

It is important to note that the UK’s international student recruitment landscape has been volatile over the past year, and while we can piece together data from various sources, it will not be until the end of the so-called 'summer surge' period (around the end of September) that we will have a complete picture for the past academic year.

Previous analysis from UUK suggested there was a 0.4% year-on-year drop in enrolments in September 2023, followed by a 44.0% drop in January 2024. At both intakes, the drop was driven by a decrease in postgraduate taught enrolments. 

Home Office data shows that the number of study visas granted to main applicants in the year ending June 2024 was down 13.2% on the previous year. Study visas are down at all levels of study, but most significantly at master's level, which sees granted visas down 17.1% on the previous year – whilst granted visas at bachelor's and doctoral level are down 4.1% and 0.1%, respectively.  

After surpassing China as the largest sending market for international students to the UK in 2022/23, the number of study visas granted to Indian nationals decreased by 22.9% compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, study visas granted to Chinese nationals have decreased for two consecutive years (down 6.5% over two years).

Pakistan has overtaken Nigeria as the third-largest sending market for international students in the year ending June 2024, with study visas granted to Nigerian nationals decreasing by 45.6% year-on-year. Study visas granted to nationals from four of the five top sending markets are in decline year-on-year, suggesting recruitment challenges go beyond only impacting certain markets.  

The latest data on visa entry clearance published by the Home Office shows the number of study visa applications made in July and August 2024 was down 16.4% compared to the same period in the previous year. 

Furthermore, data provided by Enroly suggest that the average number of deposits paid by applicants is down 28.1% for the upcoming September 2024 intake, compared to the same time last year. While down, this data shows some signs of recovery from a more substantial decrease seen earlier in the year (in May 2024, the average number of deposits paid was down 54.3% year-on-year). 

Looking ahead

Perhaps we can attribute some of the UK’s recent recovery to the change in rhetoric from the new government. The Secretary of State for Education, Bridget Phillipson, recently used a speech to declare that “international students are welcome in the UK” and the new government has moved fast to reaffirm their commitment to the Graduate route visa, following months of uncertainty.  

The UK could benefit from changes elsewhere too. The government in Australia has recently announced a cap on international student numbers starting in 2025, following a similar approach in Canada which resulted in a 32% decrease in the number of study permit applications at the start of this year. And with polls indicating the presidential race in the US is neck-and-neck, the future of international student recruitment and immigration policy for the States will be up in the air until at least 5 November.

So, although the international recruitment landscape continues to be very difficult, there are signs of hope on the horizon. We know that international students will be exploring their options, and it is incumbent that we, as a sector, work with the government to build on the UK’s reputation as a welcoming and world-leading study destination.