A report out today (Thursday) outlines how universities are preparing themselves for the prospective demographic changes that will have an impact on the demand for higher education over the next 20 years.

This is the second report on a major project assessing the future size and shape of the higher education sector in the UK.

As the project's first report demonstrated, the number of 18 to 20-year-olds - who make up over 70 per cent of entrants to full-time undergraduate programmes - is projected to fall sharply from 2009 to 2019 before rising again during the following decade up to 2027. The older age groups, from which part-time undergraduates are mainly drawn, will, on the other hand, experience modest growth over the same time period.

The second report analyses the potential impact of known and readily foreseeable policy developments on HEIs across the four countries of the UK. The report outlines some scenarios that reflect possible future directions for the higher education sector and analyses their impact on the different student markets. The scenarios do not represent predictions of what might happen, but describe in stark form what could happen if particular policy choices were made. 

Universities will want to consider the possible implications of the scenarios as part of their strategic planning processes, as they take action to maintain their current markets and develop new activities.

Professor Rick Trainor, President, Universities UK, said: “Universities UK commissioned this report to help universities consider the potential impact of longer-term trends and prospective demographic changes in demand. It gives institutions advance notice of the challenges that lie ahead so that they are well placed to anticipate these changes. Universities will be best placed to meet these challenges if the sector remains lightly regulated and is free to respond flexibly to changing student markets.”

Sir Muir Russell, Vice-President, Universities UK, and Chair of the report’s steering group, said: “This report addresses many of the uncertainties facing UK higher education such as the implications of the projected demographic changes. Higher education institutions already have a sophisticated understanding of the student market as they plan for the future. The sector will no doubt look quite different in 20 years’ time – what we must ensure is that universities and policy-makers have access to well informed and up-to-date advice about these demographic uncertainties ahead.”

Notes

1. The report, ‘The future size and shape of the HE sector: threats and opportunities’ was launched during a parliamentary seminar at the House of Commons on Tuesday 8 July 2008. The report is available from the Universities UK website at www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/Publications/Bookshop/Documents/Size_and_shape2.pdf  For further information, contact the Universities UK press office on 020 7419 5407 or email pressunit@universitiesuk.ac.uk
2. Figures from the project's first report (published in March 2008) projected a moderate fall in the numbers of 18-20 year olds between now and 2019 across all four countries of the UK. The overall decline equates to 70,000 full-time undergraduate places over the next 10 years. See: http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/mediareleases/show.asp?MR=595
3. The overall ‘Size and Shape’ project will form the basis of UUK’s invited submission to the Secretary of State’s review of higher education in England. The Secretary of State for Innovation, Universities and Skills is undertaking a state of the nation review of higher education in 2008 in advance of the review of the operation of variable tuition fees.
4. This report has been prepared for Universities UK by Nigel Brown, Bahram Bekhradnia, Sue Boorman, Alan Brickwood, Tony Clark and Brian Ramsden.